National Football League

Should Trey Lance's draft position give him an edge in 49ers' QB battle?

Published Jun. 17, 2023 4:29 p.m. ET

The San Francisco 49ers recently began their several-week break upon the completion of minicamp. When they return for training camp in July, they'll have a big decision to make when it comes to who will be starting behind center this season.

Brock Purdy and Trey Lance are expected to compete in a highly anticipated battle for the 49ers' starting quarterback job. Earlier this offseason, San Francisco general manager John Lynch indicated that Purdy was in the pole position despite being on the mend from an elbow injury that required surgery in March.

Teammate and superstar tight end George Kittle also recently threw his support behind Purdy, who the team is hopeful will be able to participate in the aforementioned training camp.

"Trey [will be] a starter in the NFL," Kittle told Sports Illustrated. "Get that guy some reps, and he has an incredibly high ceiling. But in regard to that, Brock Purdy won eight straight games and got hurt.

"I think it’s just Brock’s job to lose at that point."

While Purdy has had more success at the NFL than Lance at this point — highlighted by winning his first seven starts as a rookie to shed his "Mr. Irrelevant" title before tearing his UCL in the NFC Championship Game — there's a popular belief that the 49ers should start Lance due to the draft capital they spent in order to get him.

The 49ers traded three first-round picks in order to move up to the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and select Lance, who has started just four games in his first two seasons after suffering an ankle fracture last season.

However, FOX Sports' Colin Cowherd disagrees with the notion that the 49ers should start Lance for that reason alone.

"Trey Lance is simply a reminder of how hard it is to get quarterback right in the draft," Cowherd said on "The Herd." "Think of the 49ers' current roster. It's the best in the league, I think, easily. All of their scouts and their GM, John Lynch, appeared to have missed on one position: quarterback.

"It's hard. Hall of Fame executives miss at quarterback because things that are important, like leadership, toughness, resilience and intellect, can be hard to quantify."

Purdy's draft status is essentially the opposite of Lance's, as he was the final overall selection of the 2022 NFL Draft. But with more experience under his belt — throwing for 1,943 yards, 17 touchdowns and just four interceptions in the eight games he played — Purdy has undeniably had more success than Lance.

Lance is 2-2 in his career as a starter, throwing for 797 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions for an 84.5 passer rating. The 23-year-old also boasts 235 rushing yards (4.4 yards per attempt) and one score on the ground in that span.

On the other side, Purdy is 5-0 as a starter in the regular season, posting a 107.3 passer rating last year in his breakout campaign. Purdy, 23, went 2-1 in the postseason en route to a 109.8 passer rating that left 49ers fans wanting more.

Overall, Purdy has played in more games overall (nine) than Lance (eight) despite being drafted a year later, and Purdy bests Lance in most major statistical categories.

Though there haven't been many players in NFL history to find success as "Mr. Irrelevant," there have been a handful of quarterbacks that weren't first-round picks who went on to have great success in their NFL careers. For example, Cowherd mentioned how nine teams passed on Patrick Mahomes before the Kansas City Chiefs took him in 2017. He is now a two-time Super Bowl champion and two-time Super Bowl MVP. Likewise, Lamar Jackson was passed on 31 times before the Baltimore Ravens selected him at the end of the first round in 2018. Jalen Hurts was a second-round pick, Russell Wilson was a third-round pick, and both Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott were fourth-round picks.

Finally, Cowherd mentioned that arguably the two best quarterbacks in NFL history weren't first-round picks, mentioning that the 49ers drafted Joe Montana in the third round and the New England Patriots took Tom Brady in the sixth round.

As there have been quarterbacks selected later in the draft that have had success, there also have been quarterbacks picked earlier in the draft who haven't had as much success. That's why Cowherd thinks everyone has to accept the inexact science that comes with drafting a quarterback.

"Now, 10 years ago, 15 years ago and even 40 years ago, quarterbacks have been hard to draft," Cowherd continued. "Quarterback is hard. People say, ‘Colin, you really missed on Sam Darnold.’ Yeah, I don't lose sleep over that one. You all missed on Baker Mayfield, Johnny Manziel, Jamarcus Russell and Zach Wilson, and I didn't like any of those guys."

Still, Cowherd isn't knocking the 49ers for trying, believing teams have to keep throwing darts at the board until they find their franchise quarterback.

"It's not the perfect business," Cowherd added. "You draft a lot of them and all you need is to hit on one."

Only time will tell if the 49ers have found their franchise QB in either Purdy or Lance when the regular season gets underway. San Francisco opens its season against Pittsburgh on Sept. 10 (1 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app).

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